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Agia equation really can add up
Does 1+1=1?
When it comes to the gasline, hopefully so. A week ago, the legislature actually added one to one to enhance getting to one. We figured the TransCanada highway gasline project plus the ConocoPhillips/BP project makes it more likely we get one pipeline that delivers natural gas from the North Slope to North American markets.
Issuing a license to the TransCanada project and tossing it into the equation with the CP/BP project makes it more likely we get one pipe because both are committed to moving forward even though we all know they won't both be built. Having two projects to get one pipe means neither project can afford to lollygag. Having two projects moving forward means both will be less likely to try and leverage more from unnecessary concessions from Alaska (a la the Murkowski stranded gas proposal from two years ago) for a project that most now believe is very viable economically.
Keeping both TransCanada and CP/BP in the game for the hoped-for sum of one pipe most likely results in one of four outcomes: 1) TransCanada will build the pipe; 2) CP/BP will build the pipe; 3) CP/BP and TransCanada get together to build a pipe; or 4) there will be no pipe in the next decade or so. Giving a license to TransCanada minimizes the #4 outcome, enhances the #3 outcome, and still pushes forward the #1 and #2 outcomes.
So, overall, what the legislature did by issuing the AGIA license to TransCanada is a net positive. But there are a whole bunch of challenges ahead--both economic and political. Despite post-AGIA euphoria, the work on this is not done for any of the parties. Not by a longshot.
It will take a lot of math--beginning, perhaps, with 1+1=1
Capitol Undercurrents
Hairy moment--Because of a conflict, I missed one of my regular meetings of Senate Finance so the co-chair invited Sen. Gary Stevens, our Rules chair from Kodiak, to the table to sit at my assigned spot--between co-Chair Bert Stedman and Sen. Joe Thomas. Just on the other side of Joe is Sen. Fred Dyson. As Gary took my seat he said he'd be "happy to provide some hair" on that side of the table. Gary has the only pate of our foursome that doesn't shine on top.
Oh, baloney--During debate on expanding a program that gives electrical assistance to communities with diesel-fired generators, House Finance co-Chair Rep. Kevin Meyer asked Rep. Mary Nelson from Western Alaska ifshe wanted to talk about Fred Meyer in Anchorage. "Is that your dad?" Mary asked. Meyer held for the laugh, then responded: "No, he's my uncle. My dad is Oscar."
Correction--A few weeks ago, in an undercurrent about a Harrison Ford sighting in Juneau, we identified Ken Leghorn as the founder of Alaska Discovery. That was wrong. Chuck Horner of Haines and Ward Hulbert were the founders of the iconic Alaska company way back in 1972. Bonnie and Hayden Kayden joined the Disco team a year later and several years later Ken joined the team. I've been reminded, and shouldn't have needed to have been, that the founders were an important driving force behind protections that have accrued to Admiralty Island, Russell Fjord and Chichagof Island. All the folks behind Alaska Discovery proved that there's a real economy in keeping things as they are. |
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